Aristocrat’s market share growth predictions through 2025 are supported by Jefferies Equity Research data, according to analyst Kai Erman. Aristocrat maintains a strong position in both the Australia and New Zealand markets, holding a substantial 50% share, which Erman believes will remain sustainable for the coming year. In the United States, the brand’s momentum continues to thrive, thanks to improvements in outright sales driven by innovative new products.
The company’s successful slot games, such as Phoenix Link and Baron, significantly contribute to this growth. Other influential titles include House of the Dragon, Hyper Link, and Spooky Link. Additionally, Aristocrat secured the licensing rights to the popular board game “Monopoly,” which serves as a top-three title, strengthening its competitive stance against Light & Wonder.
Aristocrat’s installation of up to 4,000 machines
Erman predicts Aristocrat’s installation of up to 4,000 machines in the medium term. He emphasizes that concerns regarding market saturation overlook the legacy units within the install base fleet. The swift replacement cycle, characterized by the introduction of newer products, is boosting the transition from older slots to contemporary games.
Furthermore, the merger of International Game Technology (IGT) and Everi Holdings under Apollo Management presents opportunities for Aristocrat’s market expansion. Erman notes, “While we anticipate IGT/Everi’s re-entry into the market to be more energized, the process will take time given noncompete timing and initial cost reduction focus. Meanwhile, the conversion of legacy units supports Aristocrat’s growth for several years.”
Following February’s sluggish performance, the U.S. gaming market experienced three consecutive months of growth. In Australia, recent data indicates a resurgence, with Aristocrat nearing a 50% market share. Research indicates potential penetration rates of 55% to 60%, driven by the Baron game cabinet’s success. Read more news
Erman concludes that Aristocrat’s previous market share gains could continue across the U.S. in the medium term. As the Interactive segment develops, it becomes a more significant contributor to earnings.Â
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