Wall Street Bets offers insights on recent analyses from gambling industry analysts.
Surprise Tax Increase in Illinois Online Gambling
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities analyzed Illinois’ recent decision to raise sports betting taxes. “Illinois surprised the industry with another proposed sports betting tax increase in its FY26 budget,” Jonas commented on June 1. “This follows last year’s unexpected increase. Online sports betting (OSB) operators will face a $0.25 levy on the first 20 million wagers accepted, increasing to $0.50 thereafter. The new tax is likely to take effect on July 1, pending the governor’s approval, as the measure originated from his office. This change would impact DraftKings and Flutter the most, given their already high rates approaching those in New York and New Hampshire. Beyond these state tax risks, investors will focus on strategies like promotions, surcharges, and minimum bet adjustments to mitigate financial impact, along with potential long-term gains in iGaming.” Read more about Illinois gaming legislation on our gaming portal. Find further details on gambling legislative changes at Legal Sports Report.
OSB Hold Increases in New York
Jeffries David Katz examined online sports betting in New York on June 1. “New York’s statewide OSB hold increased by approximately 320 basis points week-over-week to 13.1%, the best performance since September,” Katz noted. The hold improved for most operators except Bally’s, ESPN, and Resorts World, which declined by roughly 340 basis points, 340 basis points, and 400 basis points, respectively. Conversely, Flutter, MGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and Fanatics experienced hold rates of 12% or higher. Flutter maintained its leading market share at 42%, but DraftKings showed progress with a 34.1% share. So far this quarter, Flutter holds an 11.2% average compared to DraftKings’ 9.6%.
Las Vegas Strip Gaming Soft
According to a recent analysis by Truist’s Jonas on May 28, April’s gaming on the Las Vegas Strip declined by 3% year-over-year, affected by challenging hold comparisons due to unfavorable Nevada slot accounting (-3 days year-over-year). Despite that, baccarat GGR was robust, increasing by 41% year-over-year, and basic slot/table volume metrics were solid, with handles increasing by 2% and 6%, respectively,” Jonas reported. “The local market outperformed, improving by 3% year-over-year despite obstacles. While April’s visitation fell by 5% year-over-year, convention attendance rose by 14%, and Strip revenue per available room and average daily rate increased by 4% and 5% year-over-year. The April softness on the Strip contrasted with relatively solid regional trends, with a 3% year-over-year increase same-store.”
