The casino industry is cautiously optimistic for 2025, despite labeling 2024 as an ‘underperformance’ year. Chad Beynon of Macquarie Equity Research shared these insights in a June investor report. As the industry eyes the future, there’s a focus on growth, especially in online casinos.
Cautious Optimism for 2025 in Casino Industry
Beynon anticipates $8.8 billion in gambling revenue from the Las Vegas Strip in 2025, a slight increase over 2024 but just below 2023’s $8.9 billion. Regional casinos are expected to see revenue rise to $42.3 billion from 2024’s $42 billion, reaching $43 billion by 2026.
Exciting growth is expected in igaming, projected to soar from $25.3 billion in 2024 to $30.4 billion. By 2026, Beynon forecasts this number to hit $34.5 billion across North America alone.
Macau’s gaming revenue shows a modest increase, with projections of $28.8 billion in 2025 following last year’s $28.4 billion. The future appears brighter with a 2026 forecast of $30.8 billion.
Steady Improvements in Gaming Fundamentals
Although gaming declined by six percent as of May, Beynon remains hopeful about the industry’s resilience. He notes steady consumer behavior and estimates a five percent cash-flow improvement this year. Of 16 companies he monitors, only four have enhanced their cash-flow forecasts.
Despite a mere one percent rise in first-quarter revenue, April marked a 2.5 percent increase. This could lead to unexpected gains in the second quarter and throughout 2025. Las Vegas has struggled, showing reduced revenue in four of the last five quarters, as evidenced by figures from Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, and MGM Resorts International. Visitation declined by six percent as well.
Non-gaming sectors flourish, which Beynon attributes to promising capex projects and a growing convention business. Las Vegas Strip operators remain hopeful about cash-flow growth.
Online sports betting saw a modest rise, with revenues up 14 percent and igaming receipts increasing by 27 percent. May saw a tightened hold of 10.6 percent, up from April’s 9.5 percent. Beynon expects a 10 percent handle increase for the remainder of the year.
Macau’s May casino figures reached $2.7 billion, slightly exceeding expectations. Wall Street predicts two percent growth in the second quarter, aligning with Beynon’s speculation of further outperformance.
While challenges linger, including declining Las Vegas revenue and visitation, limited merger activities, and increased igaming taxes, Beynon remains cautiously optimistic. The ongoing battle by Penn Entertainment with activist shareholders over ESPN Bet’s future, Macau tariffs, and stagnating new igaming markets also warrant attention. For further insights, visit the American Gaming Association.
