The casino industry forecast is set for an intriguing year ahead. According to Macquarie Equity Research’s analyst Chad Beynon, 2024 may be an “underperformance” year, but he remains “cautiously optimistic” for 2025. He outlined his predictions in a June 2 investor note, suggesting a slight increase in revenue on the Las Vegas Strip.
While 2025 gambling revenue on the Las Vegas Strip is estimated at $8.8 billion, this is still below the $8.9 billion from 2023. Regional casinos are anticipated to witness a moderate increase in revenue from $42 billion in 2024 to $42.3 billion, further rising to $43 billion in 2026.
The analyst highlights the significant growth potential in the igaming sector, with revenue in North America projected to surge from $25.3 billion in 2024 to $30.4 billion, reaching $34.5 billion by 2026. For a deep dive into rising trends, check out our detailed report on online gaming growth.
Beynon also notes a modest increase in Macau’s gaming revenue from $28.4 billion to $28.8 million in 2025, with an expectation of $30.8 billion in 2026. Despite a six percent decline in gaming through May, Beynon’s insights indicate a stable consumer behavior pattern.
Wall Street predicts a five percent cash-flow improvement this year. However, only four out of 16 companies increased their cash-flow guidance, which may have contributed to the current underperformance. In the first quarter, gambling revenues inched up by one percent, yet Beynon cites a promising 2.5 percent rise in April, signaling potential gains in the second quarter and beyond.
Las Vegas saw a revenue dip in four of the last five quarters at major venues like Wynn Resorts and Caesars Entertainment, alongside a six percent drop in visitation. Nonetheless, casinos claim that while GGR has slowed, non-gaming revenue is thriving.
The completion of capex projects and increasing convention business could boost cash-flow growth on the Las Vegas Strip. Despite a slow March Madness season, online sports betting revenues rose by 14 percent, with igaming receipts jumping by 27 percent. A further 10 percent handle increase is anticipated this year.
Macau’s May revenue of $2.7 billion slightly exceeded expectations, hinting at possible future outperformance. Despite Wall Street’s two percent growth forecast for the next quarter and 2025, Beynon foresees upside surprises based on May’s figures.
Beynon concludes with concerns about declining Las Vegas casino revenues, reduced international travel to the U.S., and lower OSB handle. He also mentions activist shareholder disputes at Penn Entertainment and the impact of tariffs on Macau.
For updates on gambling legislation and how it affects market performance, see the American Gaming Association.
